EURUSD
- EUR/USD Price: The EUR/USD pair failed to sustain a bullish push above 1.0850 on Monday, starting the week on a weaker note as market sentiment remains cautious.
- US Tariffs: The Trump administration is set to roll out broad tariffs on April 2, affecting most major trading partners, escalating concerns over a potential trade war.
- ECB’s Lagarde: ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the Eurozone is nearing its inflation target but stressed the need for interest rates to remain carefully calibrated. She also warned that a global trade war would be detrimental to all parties.
- European Inflation Data: Markets await the preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation report, scheduled for Wednesday, which could influence ECB policy expectations.
- US Data: Traders will monitor the ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending, and weekly crude oil stockpile data for further USD direction cues.
| SMA (20) | Rising |  | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling |  |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: EUR/USD remains fragile, with US tariff risks and upcoming inflation data likely to determine its next move. A hawkish Fed reaction to strong US data could weigh further on the pair.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD Price: The GBP/USD pair remains rangebound on Monday as investors brace for further US tariff developments, awaiting clearer market direction.
- UK Trade Secretary: Jonathan Reynolds, UK Trade Secretary, expressed hope that Trump’s tariffs may be reversed in the coming weeks or months, easing concerns over UK trade relations.
- GS Forecast: Goldman Sachs lowered its UK 2025 GDP growth projection from 0.9% to 0.8%, reflecting slightly weaker economic expectations.
- UK Housing Market: UK house prices stagnated in March after six months of consecutive growth, with annual price growth steady at 3.9%, according to Nationwide Building Society.
- US Data: The UK economic calendar is light this week, but focus remains on US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which could set the tone for GBP/USD’s next move.
| SMA (20) | Rising | | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising | |
|
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: GBP/USD remains in a consolidation phase, with US tariff developments and NFP data likely to dictate short-term price action. A strong US jobs report could boost USD strength, pressuring the pair further.
XAUUSD
- XAU/USD Price: Gold prices continue to surge, marking a fourth consecutive day of record highs on Tuesday, driven by growing global trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty.
- Secretary Bessent: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned of tariffs targeting the “Dirty 15”—countries with heavy trade ties to the US and high tariff barriers. Trump is set to announce these tariffs on April 2 at 19:00 GMT, fueling market anxiety.
- Rate Cut Expectations: The market is currently pricing in an 80 basis-point rate cut from the Fed by year-end, enhancing gold’s appeal as a non-yielding safe-haven asset.
- China’s Manufacturing PMI: China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2 in March, the highest since November, marking six straight months of expansion—potentially signaling stronger demand for commodities, including gold.
- Geopolitical Risks: Russia’s continued bombing of Kharkiv for a second night adds to geopolitical instability, further reinforcing gold’s safe-haven demand.
| SMA (20) | Rising | | |
| RSI (14) | Rising | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising | | |
Closing statement: Gold maintains its bullish momentum, with trade war fears, rate cut expectations, and geopolitical risks supporting further gains. Investors will watch April 2’s tariff announcement and US economic data for fresh catalysts.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is trading around $71.60 per barrel in the early European session on Tuesday, holding onto recent gains amid geopolitical uncertainty.
- Trump's Tarrifs: US President Donald Trump expressed frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin, stating that he may impose secondary tariffs of 25% to 50% on countries buying Russian oil if Moscow is seen as obstructing his efforts to end the Ukraine war.
- Zelenskyy's Statement: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that Russia launched over 1,000 drone strikes in the past week, urging the US and its allies to respond with stronger military and economic measures.
- Middle East Tensions: Israel has resumed its military offensive against Hamas, issuing mass evacuation orders for Rafah, a potential precursor to a new ground operation. This raises the risk of further instability in the region, which could impact oil supply dynamics.
- US Economic Data: Investors are looking ahead to key US macroeconomic data releases, including JOLTS job openings and the ISM Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday, which could influence market sentiment and energy demand expectations.
| SMA (20) | Falling | | |
| RSI (14) | Rising | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising | | |
Closing statement: Oil markets remain volatile, with Trump’s tariff threats, ongoing Ukraine-Russia tensions, and renewed conflict in the Middle East driving uncertainty. Traders will closely monitor US economic data and geopolitical developments for further direction.
DAX
- DAX Price: Investors are looking ahead to key US macroeconomic data releases, including JOLTS job openings and the ISM Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday, which could influence market sentiment and energy demand expectations.
- US Tariff Package: Investors are bracing for US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement on Wednesday, which could escalate global trade tensions and impact German exporters.
- Dollar and Gold: The US dollar weakened after a tough quarter, while gold surged to a new record high near $3,150 per ounce, signaling strong safe-haven demand amid uncertainty.
- German Inflation: Germany’s CPI dropped to 2.2% YoY in March, the lowest since November 2024, driven by slower services inflation (3.4%) and declining energy costs (-2.8%)—a sign of easing price pressures.
- Key Events: Traders are watching Eurozone Flash March CPI, ECB President Lagarde’s speech, and US data releases, including JOLTS job openings and ISM Manufacturing PMI, for fresh market direction.
| SMA (20) | Rising | | |
| RSI (14) | Falling | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling | | |
Closing statement: DAX remains in recovery mode, but US tariff risks and economic data will dictate the next move. Investors will closely watch Trump’s trade policy updates and ECB commentary for further cues.