Daily Analysis 02/06/2026

• GBP/USD Price: The GBP/USD pair continues to attract buyers after experiencing notable two-way volatility in the previous session. Holding above the 1.3450 level suggests that market participants remain supportive of the pound despite a stronger US economic backdrop.
• Middle East: Iran’s decision to suspend talks over Israel’s actions in Lebanon highlights that geopolitical risks in the region remain elevated. Such developments can increase market uncertainty and boost demand for safe-haven assets, which may periodically support the US dollar and create headwinds for GBP/USD.
• Strait of Hormuz: President Trump’s comments that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and extend the ceasefire with Iran could be reached within a week have helped ease some concerns about regional disruptions. Improved geopolitical sentiment tends to support risk-sensitive currencies such as the British pound while reducing demand for traditional safe havens.
• US data: The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.0 in May from 52.7 in April, exceeding market expectations of 53.0. The stronger-than-expected reading points to continued expansion in the US manufacturing sector, reinforcing confidence in the strength of the US economy and providing support for the US dollar.
• Upcoming data: Investors are now focused on the upcoming JOLTS Job Openings report, a closely watched indicator of labor demand. A strong reading would reinforce the view that the US labor market remains healthy, potentially supporting higher interest rate expectations and strengthening the dollar, while a weaker figure could provide support for GBP/USD.

Closing statement: GBP/USD remains relatively stable as improving risk sentiment offsets support from stronger US economic data. The pair's near-term direction will likely depend on incoming US labor market figures, with stronger employment indicators favoring the dollar and weaker data potentially allowing GBP/USD to extend its gains.

• XAU/USD Price: Gold is trading slightly above the key psychological level of $4,500 during the European session, indicating that buyers are still present. However, the lack of strong upward follow-through suggests that investors remain cautious and are waiting for fresh catalysts before committing to larger positions.
• US trade: The USTR's decision to impose an additional 25% tariff on most Brazilian imports signals a renewed phase of US trade tensions. Trade disputes tend to increase uncertainty regarding global growth and international commerce, which can boost demand for safe-haven assets such as gold.
• Tariff adjustments: The White House's decision to modify tariffs on steel, aluminum, copper, and agricultural equipment presents a mixed economic picture. While lower tariffs on agricultural equipment may ease some inflationary pressures and support business activity, the broader tariff framework continues to create uncertainty for global trade and supply chains.
• US GDP: The Atlanta Fed revised its Q2 GDP growth estimate downward from 3.8% to 3.0%, suggesting that economic momentum may be moderating. Slower growth expectations can increase speculation about future monetary policy adjustments and enhance gold's appeal as a defensive asset.
• Fed expectations: Analysts at OCBC have become more cautious on gold, lowering their price forecasts due to elevated oil prices, rising bond yields, and a more hawkish Federal Reserve outlook.

Closing statement: Gold continues to receive support from geopolitical risks, trade tensions, and concerns about slowing economic growth, but higher yields and expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve are restraining bullish momentum. In the near term, XAU/USD may remain range-bound, with upside dependent on safe-haven demand and downside risks tied to further increases in yields and dollar strength.

• Crude Oil Price: WTI crude oil is trading around $89.85 during the European session, maintaining levels close to the important $90 threshold.
• OPEC+ production: Several OPEC+ members are reportedly favoring a production increase of approximately 188,000 barrels per day for July, similar to the adjustment implemented for June. While the increase is relatively modest, it signals that producers remain comfortable with gradually returning supply to the market, which could help limit further upside in oil prices.
• Hormuz agreement: President Trump's comments suggesting that an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and extend the ceasefire with Iran could be reached within the next week have improved market sentiment.
• Lebanon tensions: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's commitment to continue operations against Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon highlights that regional tensions remain unresolved. Continued military activity in the region keeps a geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices, as traders remain alert to any escalation that could affect energy infrastructure or transportation routes.
• Inventory data: Market participants are awaiting the latest American Petroleum Institute (API) inventory report later today. A larger-than-expected crude stock draw would signal strong demand and potentially support higher oil prices, while an unexpected inventory build could increase concerns about supply-demand balance and weigh on the market.

Closing statement: WTI remains supported by persistent geopolitical risks and concerns over Middle East stability, keeping prices close to $90 per barrel. However, expectations of additional OPEC+ supply and hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough involving the Strait of Hormuz could limit further gains, making upcoming inventory data a key catalyst for near-term price direction.

• DAX 40 Price: The DAX 40 is trading around 25,240 points during Tuesday's European session, continuing its positive momentum. Investor sentiment remains constructive as market participants focus on improving corporate prospects and a relatively stable macroeconomic environment in the Eurozone.
• Inflation expectations: The ECB's consumer survey revealed that medium-term inflation expectations eased slightly, with the three-year median expectation falling to 2.9% from 3.0%, while one-year expectations remained at 4.0%. Stabilizing inflation expectations may reassure investors that inflation pressures are becoming more manageable, potentially reducing the need for aggressive monetary tightening.
• DHL news: Shares of DHL surged after receiving a buy recommendation from Kepler Cheuvreux, reaching their highest level since 2022. As one of Germany's major listed companies, the strong performance of DHL contributes positively to overall DAX sentiment and reflects growing confidence in the company's earnings outlook.
• Infineon rating: Jefferies raised its target price for Infineon from €75 to €96 while maintaining a Buy recommendation. The upgrade highlights growing confidence in the semiconductor sector and supports broader optimism toward technology-related stocks, which continue to play an important role within the German equity market.
• Aerospace industry: Norsk Titanium's new cooperation agreement with Airbus to advance titanium component manufacturing technology underscores continued investment and innovation within the European aerospace sector.

Closing statement: The DAX remains supported by stabilizing inflation expectations, positive analyst sentiment, and strong company-specific developments across logistics, technology, and industrial sectors. While macroeconomic conditions remain important, the current backdrop favors a constructive outlook, with the index maintaining a bullish bias as long as corporate earnings expectations and investor confidence remain strong.