EURUSD
- EUR/USD Price: The EUR/USD pair settled around 1.1160 on Friday, recording a weekly decline and closing October in negative territory. On Monday morning, the pair is trading near 1.1190, showing a modest recovery.
- Eurozone inflation: The European Central Bank (ECB) faces a challenging monetary policy environment as Eurozone inflation reached 3.8% in September, its highest level in three years. This is almost twice the central bank's 2% target, increasing pressure on policymakers to consider further tightening.
- Inflation forecast: The ECB's latest Survey of Professional Forecasters reinforces concerns about persistent price pressures, with inflation expectations for this year revised upwards to 3% and the 2027 forecast raised to 2.6%. These figures compare with previous estimates of 2.7% and 2.2%, respectively.
- Rate hike: ECB President Christine Lagarde confirmed that policymakers discussed raising interest rates, indicating that another increase remains an option at the December meeting.
- ECB's Panetta: ECB Governing Council member and Bank of Italy Governor Fabio Panetta warned that additional tightening could become necessary if inflation remains above target for an extended period. According to Reuters, he stated that further policy rate increases could prove necessary given the upside risks to inflation.
| SMA (20) | Falling |  | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling | |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: EUR/USD has started November with a modest recovery after closing October lower. However, persistent Eurozone inflation and increasingly hawkish ECB signals could provide support for the euro, particularly if expectations of a December rate hike strengthen. The pair's direction will also depend on broader market sentiment and developments in US monetary policy.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD Price: The GBP/USD pair attracts dip-buyers at the start of the new week, climbing back towards the 1.3400 mark during the Asian session.
- US Dollar: Growing optimism over a potential diplomatic breakthrough to end the US-Iran war is undermining demand for the safe-haven US Dollar.
- BoE rate: The Bank of England is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday, with markets widely expecting a 25-basis-point interest rate increase.
- US employment: The US Employment Cost Index increased by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, matching expectations but slowing from 0.9% in Q2. Both wages and salaries and benefits recorded moderately slower growth, suggesting that wage pressures remain relatively contained.
- Data ahead: The October ISM Manufacturing survey is due for release, with the indicator continuing to point towards solid activity in the US manufacturing sector. A stronger-than-expected reading could support the US Dollar, while weaker figures may reinforce the current pressure on the currency.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling | |
|
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising |  |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising | | |
Closing statement: GBP/USD is showing renewed upside momentum, supported by a weaker US Dollar and expectations of a BoE rate hike. However, the upcoming central bank decision and US manufacturing data could trigger volatility and determine whether the pair can sustain its recovery above the 1.3400 level.
XAUUSD
- XAU/USD Price: Gold (XAU/USD) is maintaining modest intraday gains above the $3,900 mark heading into Monday's European session.
- Chinese data: China's official manufacturing PMI fell back into contractionary territory at 49.3 in October, down from 50.1 in September and below the expected 50.0. New orders and new export orders remained in contraction, while production and purchasing activity also slipped below the 50-point threshold.
- Fed's Barkin: Federal Reserve official Thomas Barkin stated that the overall direction of monetary policy is relatively clear, while the main uncertainty concerns the pace of adjustments. He added that a gradual approach is appropriate for now, potentially limiting expectations of aggressive policy changes.
- Fed's Goolsbee: Federal Reserve official Austan Goolsbee is scheduled to speak later on Monday afternoon. His comments could provide further insight into policymakers' assessment of inflation, economic conditions and the future interest rate path.
- US data: The US economic calendar features the ISM Manufacturing PMI later today, followed by the ISM Services PMI on Wednesday and the crucial Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: Gold is holding above the $3,900 level, but the absence of strong buying interest reflects uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook and Federal Reserve policy. Weak Chinese manufacturing data may weigh on sentiment, while a gradual Fed approach could offer some support. The upcoming US economic releases, particularly Friday's NFP report, are likely to be key drivers of the next directional move.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading lower at around $101.90 during Monday's European session.
- Strait of Hormuz: Iranian negotiators reportedly held talks with Qatari mediators for a third consecutive day on Sunday, seeking to advance a deal to end the US-Israeli war on Iran. Tehran has proposed a 48-hour plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, conditional on the US lifting sanctions imposed after the Islamabad memorandum and reducing its military presence in the region.
- Iran signals: Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has reportedly instructed senior military commanders to prepare for a renewed confrontation with the US and Israel. He also ordered them to expand Iran's options for retaliation, highlighting the continued risk of further escalation in the region.
- OPEC+ production: OPEC+ kept its December production targets unchanged at Sunday's meeting, with Gulf output still constrained by disruptions linked to the Iran war. Attention now turns to the full OPEC+ meeting on November 29, when the group is expected to address production quotas for 2027.
- IEA warning: The International Energy Agency has warned that the oil market could face excess supply in 2027 if Gulf production and exports return to normal levels.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: WTI remains under pressure near $101.90 as diplomatic efforts raise the possibility of reopening the Strait of Hormuz and easing supply disruptions. However, the risk of renewed military confrontation continues to support prices by keeping geopolitical uncertainty elevated. In the longer term, a normalization of Gulf supply and the prospect of excess production in 2027 could weigh on the market.
DAX
- DAX 40 Price: The DAX 40 is trading lower at around 25,800 points on Monday morning. Investor sentiment remains influenced by mixed economic signals from across the euro area.
- Inflation data: Preliminary October inflation figures from euro area countries surprised in different directions. German inflation came in below expectations, largely offsetting higher-than-anticipated readings from France and Italy, while Spain's inflation matched forecasts.
- Retail sales: German Retail Sales, an important indicator of consumer spending, fell by 2.0% month-on-month in September, according to Destatis, significantly missing expectations for a 0.4% increase. August's figure was revised slightly lower to 1.2% from 1.3%, pointing to continued weakness in consumer demand.
- Eurozone GDP: Euro area GDP expanded by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, beating the 0.2% consensus estimate, although slowing from 0.6% in the previous quarter. Excluding Ireland's volatile contribution, which is more relevant for the ECB's assessment, the economy grew by 0.2%, broadly in line with expectations.
- Manufacturing PMI: The final eurozone Manufacturing PMI for October is due for release, with expectations that it will confirm the preliminary reading of 52.4.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: The DAX 40 is facing some downside pressure near 25,800 points, with disappointing German retail sales highlighting weakness in domestic demand. However, stronger-than-expected eurozone GDP growth and continued manufacturing expansion could provide support. The market's near-term direction will depend on how investors assess the balance between resilient regional growth and Germany's weaker economic indicators.