EURUSD
- EUR/USD Price: The EUR/USD pair has attracted fresh buying interest during Thursday's European session, recovering part of the previous day's losses. While the rebound signals some resilience among euro buyers, the pair remains below the key 1.1600 level, suggesting that traders are still cautious about committing to a stronger bullish move.
- Middle East: Investors remain wary as uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict persists despite reports of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon. While the development could help facilitate broader negotiations between the US and Iran, markets remain unconvinced that a lasting diplomatic breakthrough is imminent, keeping risk sentiment fragile.
- US Senate: The US House of Representatives has approved a resolution seeking to limit President Trump's war powers, highlighting growing political opposition to continued military involvement in the region.
- Eurozone inflation: April's Producer Price Index data reinforced the view that inflationary pressures remain present across the Eurozone. However, the impact on the euro was limited because financial markets have already largely priced in a 25-basis-point ECB rate hike at the upcoming policy meeting, reducing the potential for the data to generate a significant market reaction.
- Upcoming events: Investors are awaiting comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde for additional clues regarding the central bank's policy outlook. Attention will also be on Eurozone Retail Sales, which are expected to decline for a third consecutive month, potentially highlighting weakness in consumer demand and raising concerns about the region's economic momentum.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling |  |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: EUR/USD is finding support from expectations of further ECB tightening and a modest improvement in risk sentiment, but gains remain limited by geopolitical uncertainty and concerns about Eurozone economic growth. The pair's near-term direction will likely depend on Lagarde's remarks and whether incoming economic data support the case for continued ECB policy tightening.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD Price: The GBP/USD pair has attracted buyers following the previous session's decline toward weekly lows, allowing it to recover above the 1.3400 level.
- Geopolitical tensions: The US military successfully intercepted multiple Iranian missiles and drones targeting Kuwait and Bahrain before carrying out retaliatory strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island. While the situation remains tense, the measured response and absence of major disruptions have helped prevent a stronger flight to safety, limiting excessive volatility in currency markets.
- ADP employment: US private-sector employment increased by 122,000 jobs in May, surpassing expectations of 117,000. The stronger-than-expected labor market data reinforces confidence in the resilience of the US economy and supports the view that the Federal Reserve may maintain a restrictive policy stance for longer, providing underlying support for the dollar.
- Labor market: The recent rise in JOLTS job openings, combined with stronger ADP employment figures, suggests that labor demand remains healthy in the United States. These reports increase the likelihood of a solid Nonfarm Payrolls release on Friday, which could further strengthen the dollar if employment growth exceeds expectations.
- UK services: The UK S&P Global Services PMI fell from 52.7 in April to 49.3 in May, indicating a contraction in activity. Although the figure came in better than the market forecast of 47.9, the move below the 50 threshold raises concerns about slowing economic momentum and may limit the pound's upside potential.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: GBP/USD is receiving short-term support from dip-buying activity, but stronger US labor market data and expectations of a resilient Nonfarm Payrolls report continue to favor the dollar. Unless UK economic data improve significantly, the pair may struggle to sustain gains, with upcoming US employment figures likely to be the key driver of near-term direction.
XAUUSD
- XAU/USD Price: Gold has attracted fresh buying interest during Thursday's European session, climbing toward the $4,465 area and recovering a significant portion of the previous day's losses.
- US-Iran negotiations: According to reports, diplomatic discussions between the United States and Iran have encountered difficulties due to Tehran's demand for the immediate release of frozen assets at the outset of negotiations.
- Fed's Logan: Federal Reserve official Lorie Logan indicated growing concern that higher interest rates may still be required later this year. Her comments reinforce the view that inflation risks remain a concern for policymakers and suggest that monetary policy could stay restrictive for longer.
- Labor market: Investors are awaiting the May Challenger Job Cuts report, which will offer additional insight into conditions in the US labor market. Although layoffs linked to artificial intelligence adoption have increased this year, overall job-cut announcements remain relatively low by historical standards, indicating that employment conditions remain broadly stable.
- Upcoming data: Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming Weekly Jobless Claims data and comments from influential Federal Open Market Committee members.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: Gold is benefiting from renewed safe-haven demand as US-Iran negotiations encounter difficulties, helping prices recover from recent lows. However, persistent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials continue to cap upside potential, leaving XAU/USD caught between geopolitical support and interest-rate-related headwinds. Near-term direction will likely depend on incoming US labor market data and Fed commentary.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude Oil Price: WTI crude oil is trading around $93.20 during Thursday's European session, remaining near multi-month highs.
- US inventory: US commercial crude inventories fell by 8 million barrels during the latest reporting week, bringing stockpiles to 433.7 million barrels, around 3% below the five-year average. The decline is particularly notable because it occurred despite another 8 million barrels being released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
- Hormuz implications: Kuwait Petroleum Company warned that restoring oil production after a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could take much longer than many market participants expect. Even under a favorable scenario, only around 70% of normal production could be restored within six to eight weeks, with full recovery taking several months.
- Iraqi production: Iraq has restarted production at several key oil fields, including West Qurna 1, Majnoon, and Fauqi, helping national output recover to approximately 1.5-1.6 million barrels per day.
- Alternative routes: Iraq plans to triple crude exports through the Kurdistan-Turkey pipeline network to the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan within the next three months. The strategy reflects efforts by regional producers to reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz and maintain access to international markets, though these alternative routes may take time to significantly impact global supply balances.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: WTI remains strongly supported by tightening inventories, persistent supply disruptions, and concerns that production recovery across the Middle East will be slower than markets initially anticipated. Although Iraq's output recovery and expanding export routes provide some relief, the overall supply outlook remains constrained, suggesting that crude oil prices could stay elevated in the near term unless production normalizes more quickly than expected.
DAX
- DAX 40 Price: The DAX 40 is trading around 24,960 points during Thursday's European session, with investors adopting a cautious stance ahead of important Eurozone economic releases.
- Commerzbank developments: Commerzbank has requested that Germany's financial regulator review support commitments linked to UniCredit's takeover bid after the Italian lender secured commitments that could push its stake above 30%. The development highlights increasing consolidation activity within the European banking sector and could have broader implications for investor sentiment toward financial stocks.
- Rising wealth: According to Capgemini, Germany's population of High Net Worth Individuals increased by 11.1% in 2025 to approximately 1.78 million people. The growth in private wealth suggests that despite economic headwinds, significant segments of the German economy continue to generate wealth and maintain financial strength, supporting long-term consumption and investment trends.
- Eurozone PMI: The final May Services PMI was revised sharply higher to 47.7 from the preliminary estimate of 46.4, while the Composite PMI improved to 48.5 from 47.5. Although both indicators remain below the 50-point expansion threshold, the upward revisions suggest that economic activity across the Eurozone may be stabilizing faster than initially feared.
- Upcoming data: Investor attention is now turning to Friday's third estimate of first-quarter Eurozone GDP and the ECB's preferred wage-growth measure, compensation per employee.
| SMA (20) | Rising |  | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising | |
|
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising | | |
Closing statement: The DAX 40 remains caught between improving economic indicators and uncertainty surrounding future ECB policy decisions. Stronger PMI data and signs of resilience in Germany's wealth creation are supportive for equities, but upcoming GDP and wage figures will be crucial in determining whether the index can regain upward momentum or remain under pressure from interest-rate concerns.