Daily Analysis 06/05/2026

• GBP/USD Price: GBP/USD has attracted buyers for the second consecutive day, moving away from the recent weekly low near 1.3510. This indicates a short-term recovery phase and improving sentiment toward the Pound.
• Ongoing ceasefire: US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth stated that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran remains in place despite continued incidents in the Strait of Hormuz. This suggests partial stabilization, though underlying geopolitical risks persist.
• Labor market: The US JOLTS Job Openings report showed a decline to 6.866 million in March from 6.922 million in February. Although slightly above expectations, the decrease signals a gradual cooling in labor demand.
• Services sector: The ISM Services PMI edged down to 53.6 in April from 54.0 previously, coming in just below forecasts. While still indicating expansion, the data points to a slight slowdown in economic momentum.
• BoE expectations: Markets are increasingly pricing in a more hawkish stance from the Bank of England, shifting away from earlier expectations of rate cuts. This change in outlook is providing support to the British Pound.

Closing statement: GBP/USD is recovering as hawkish BoE expectations and softer US data weigh on the Dollar, while geopolitical stability offers additional support. The near-term outlook is cautiously bullish, with further upside dependent on continued shifts in rate expectations and risk sentiment.

• XAU/USD Price: Gold is extending its rebound for the second consecutive day, recovering from a one-month low near $4,500. This indicates renewed buying interest after a period of strong downside pressure.
• Diplomatic engagement: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing to discuss regional developments and bilateral relations. This reflects ongoing diplomatic efforts by Iran to strengthen international support.
• US Trade deficit: US data showed that the trade deficit widened in March, driven by increased imports linked to strong investment in AI. Both imports and exports rose, highlighting robust economic activity but also external imbalances.
• Fed expectations: According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in over a 35% probability of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve. This shift toward tighter monetary policy is generally negative for gold.
• Tech sector: Major US tech companies are reporting strong earnings driven by AI-related investments, boosting risk sentiment. This environment can reduce demand for safe-haven assets like gold as investors shift toward higher-growth opportunities.

Closing statement: Gold is recovering from recent lows, supported by geopolitical developments, but rising Fed tightening expectations and strong risk sentiment limit upside potential. The near-term outlook is neutral, with a slight bullish bias dependent on further geopolitical or macroeconomic shifts.

• Crude Oil Price: WTI crude is declining for the second consecutive day, falling to a one-week low near $97.10. This indicates increasing selling pressure despite the broader bullish backdrop seen previously.
• US Inventories: The American Petroleum Institute reported a sharp decline of 8.1 million barrels in US crude inventories, far exceeding expectations. This suggests strong demand or tightening supply conditions in the US market.
• Russian infrastructure: A major fire broke out at Russia’s Kirishi refinery following drone attacks, threatening a key supply source. This introduces additional uncertainty into global oil supply dynamics.
• Russian oil: A group of US Senate Democrats is urging the administration to reinstate sanctions on Russian oil exports. This could further restrict global supply and add upward pressure on prices if implemented.
• Energy investment: Shell and INEOS Energy announced a joint investment in exploration projects in the US Gulf of Mexico. This reflects long-term efforts to increase production capacity and secure future supply.

Closing statement: Crude oil is facing short-term selling pressure despite strong inventory draws and ongoing supply risks. The near-term outlook is mixed, with downside momentum likely limited by tightening supply conditions and geopolitical uncertainties.

• DAX 40 Price: The DAX is trading around 24,615 points, indicating resilience and continued strength in the German equity market. The index remains supported despite ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties.
• Trade tensions: Maroš Šefčovič met with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer amid concerns over potential US tariffs on EU vehicles. Proposed tariff increases pose a significant risk to Germany’s export-driven economy.
• Automotive sector: BMW reported declines in earnings and revenue, citing intense competition in key markets such as China. Additionally, leadership changes add another layer of uncertainty for the company.
• PMI data: Eurozone PMI data shows contraction in the services sector while manufacturing remains stable. The composite PMI below 50 highlights weakening overall economic activity.
• Earnings season: Investors are closely watching upcoming results from major firms such as Infineon, Zalando, Daimler Truck, BMW, and Lufthansa. These reports are expected to drive near-term market direction.

Closing statement: The DAX remains firm but faces headwinds from trade tensions and weak economic data, particularly in services. The near-term outlook is neutral to slightly bullish, with corporate earnings likely to play a decisive role in determining direction.