EURUSD
- EUR/USD Price: EUR/USD starts the new week on a subdued note, trading just above 1.1550 during the Asian session and remaining close to its highest level since June 17.
- US NFP: The US economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July, dramatically missing expectations for an 80,000 increase. The disappointing employment figure puts significant pressure on the US Dollar and strengthens the case for a less restrictive Federal Reserve policy outlook.
- Wage growth: Annual wage growth eased to 3.2% from 3.4%, providing another indication that inflationary pressure from the labor market is moderating. Although the unemployment rate improved to 4.1% from 4.2%, the combination of weak payrolls and slower wage growth remains broadly negative for the Dollar.
- Shipping agreement: Iran said negotiations with Oman aimed at establishing a safe shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz are approaching an agreement, although Tehran warned that this would not mean an immediate reopening.
- ECB outlook: The European Central Bank continues to keep interest rates unchanged, with markets currently pricing in only one additional rate hike before year-end and a lower probability of a second move.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising |  |
|
| RSI (14) | Rising | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising | | |
Closing statement: EUR/USD retains a bullish bias after the sharply weaker US employment report, but the pair's ability to extend gains will depend on whether further US data reinforce expectations for easier Fed policy while the ECB maintains its cautious approach.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD Price: GBP/USD is edging lower at the start of the new week after reaching levels just above the psychologically important 1.3500 mark on Friday.
- Strait of Hormuz: Iranian officials have criticized US diplomatic efforts, while reports suggest that a potential draft agreement could restrict US and Israeli vessels from using the Strait of Hormuz.
- Fed's Barkin: Despite the unexpectedly weak July NFP report, Federal Reserve official Thomas Barkin maintained his previous neutral-to-hawkish stance.
- Fed's Bowman: Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman similarly emphasized the importance of controlling inflation following the weak employment data.
- UK Q2: Markets are turning their attention to the preliminary UK second-quarter GDP report due on Thursday.
| SMA (20) | Rising | | |
| RSI (14) | Rising | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising | | |
Closing statement: GBP/USD is consolidating after its recent rally, with persistent Fed hawkishness and geopolitical risks limiting the Pound's upside; Thursday's UK GDP data could provide the next major catalyst for the pair.
XAUUSD
- XAU/USD Price: Gold is drifting higher at the beginning of the new week, moving back toward the highest level since June 17 reached on Friday.
- Fed independence: President Trump has moved to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, giving her 21 days to contest the allegations. The unprecedented pressure on a Fed policymaker raises concerns about central-bank independence and monetary-policy credibility.
- Chinese inflation: China's July inflation increased only 0.5%, coming in below expectations and pointing to continued weakness in domestic demand.
- Yen intervention: Japan and the United States reportedly carried out coordinated Yen-buying intervention, contributing to a sharp decline in USD/JPY.
- AI security: OpenAI reportedly paused the planned release of its advanced science-reasoning model after it reached critical cybersecurity threat levels.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising | |
|
| RSI (14) | Rising | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising | | |
Closing statement: Gold retains a bullish bias as institutional uncertainty, weak Chinese domestic demand and currency-market volatility support safe-haven demand, although the sustainability of the rally will remain sensitive to US Dollar and Federal Reserve policy developments.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude Oil Price: WTI crude oil is trading lower near $78.70 during Monday's early European session.
- Energy infrastructure: Iran-backed Houthi militants claimed an attack on Saudi Arabia's Jazan refinery, while a tanker operated by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company was reportedly attacked in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Jones Act: President Trump is reportedly considering another suspension of the Jones Act in an attempt to bring US gasoline prices below politically sensitive levels ahead of the midterm elections.
- Price forecast: Citi increased its third-quarter Brent crude forecast to $80 per barrel from $75, citing the prolonged US-Iran conflict and repeated failures to restore normal oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
- ADNOC report: Abu Dhabi National Oil Company said repeated attacks on its vessels and employees are having a significant impact on its ability to move crude, gas, and refined products through the Strait of Hormuz. Fifteen ADNOC vessels have reportedly been targeted since the conflict began, including three during the latest week, demonstrating the scale of the threat to regional energy infrastructure.
| SMA (20) | Rising | | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling |  |
|
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: WTI is experiencing a modest pullback, but severe shipping disruptions and attacks on Middle Eastern energy infrastructure keep the underlying outlook bullish, with prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruptions posing significant upside risks to crude prices.
DAX
- DAX 40 Price: Despite continued uncertainty surrounding the Middle East, the DAX 40 opened Monday's session higher around 26,350 points.
- Volkswagen strategy: Volkswagen plans to introduce a new locally produced pickup truck in the United States before the end of the decade as part of a broader regional strategy.
- Allianz report: Allianz reported a 10.6% increase in second-quarter operating profit to a record €4.9 billion, while total business volume reached €45.6 billion.
- German industry: Entrepreneur Nikolas Stihl is calling for rapid negotiations between employers and unions over extending working hours without corresponding wage increases in Germany's metal and electrical industries.
- Investor confidence: The upcoming Sentix Investor Confidence indicator is expected to provide further insight into investor sentiment across the Eurozone.
| SMA (20) | Rising | | |
| RSI (14) | Rising | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising | | |
Closing statement: The DAX 40 maintains a positive bias as strong corporate earnings, improving investor confidence and Volkswagen's US expansion plans support sentiment, although Middle East uncertainty and Germany's competitiveness challenges remain potential sources of volatility.