EURUSD
- The EUR/USD pair decreased by 0.44% to 1.0932, returning to the middle of its trading range over the past month.
- French ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau stated that future rate hikes would be "more marginal," while the impact of past rate hikes should allow the ECB to achieve its objectives within two years.
- From a technical perspective, EUR/USD has a neutral short-term outlook, with the price limited by the 20-day SMA but trading well above the 100- and 200-day SMAs.
- The DXY, which tracks the dollar against six other currencies, rose 0.47% to 101.887 after a slight decline in the previous session.
- The outlook for the EUR/USD pair remains uncertain as investors await further developments in the global economy and central bank policies.
| SMA (1D) | Slightly Falling |  | ||
| RSI (1D) | Falling | |
| |
| MACD (1D) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: Overall, EUR/USD fell back to the middle of its trading range and the DXY rebounded higher, with comments from ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau suggesting that future rate hikes may be more marginal. Technical indicators for EUR/USD show a neutral short-term outlook with the price capped by the 20-day SMA, while investors await key U.S. inflation data.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD fell by 0.39% to 1.2576, retreating from Wednesday's one-year high of 1.2679.
- Sterling remained near recent highs ahead of the Bank of England’s latest policy-setting meeting, where the central bank is expected to announce its 12th straight rate hike.
- The Bank of England is tackling headline inflation in double figures, and its decision on interest rates will have an impact on GBP/USD.
- The U.S. dollar moved higher in early European trade on Thursday, recovering after overnight losses.
- The uncertainty over the U.S. debt ceiling remains, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned about the potential global economic damage a default would trigger.
GOLD
- Gold prices showed a muted reaction to the recent data, as investors anticipate that U.S. interest rates will remain higher for longer.
- Despite this, gold remains well above the $2,000 mark amid steady haven demand, driven by the prospect of an economic slowdown in the U.S.
- Recent data shows that U.S. consumer inflation eased slightly in April, which could point towards a pause in the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary tightening cycle.
- The probability of the Fed pausing in June has increased to nearly 87% after the inflation report, while the chances of a rate cut in July rose to above 36% according to the CME FedWatch tool.
- Additionally, signs of slowing economic growth in China also influenced gold prices this week, as trade data showed that Chinese imports sank more than expected through April.
Closing statement: In summary, while gold prices showed a muted reaction to recent data, steady haven demand and factors such as potential U.S. economic slowdown and slowing growth in China continue to support gold prices.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude oil prices bounced back on Thursday after dropping by more than a dollar a barrel the previous day, supported by stronger fuel demand data from the United States.
- The Energy Information Administration reported an inventory build of 3 million barrels for the week of May 5.
- A sharper-than-expected drop in U.S. gasoline inventories boosted prices, reflecting stronger demand for transport fuels in the U.S.
- However, investors remained cautious as rising global interest rates continued to drive recessionary fears.
- Investors are also watching detailed talks on raising the U.S. government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling that kicked off on Wednesday, with Republicans continuing to insist on spending cuts.
| SMA (1D) | Falling | |
|
|
| RSI (1D) | Slightly Rising |
|
||
| MACD (1D) | Slightly Rising |
|
Closing statement: In summary, crude oil prices rebounded on Thursday due to stronger fuel demand in the US, but investors remain cautious due to rising global interest rates and the ongoing discussions on raising the US debt ceiling.
DAX
- European stock markets are expected to open higher on Thursday following the latest U.S. inflation figures and ahead of the Bank of England policy-setting meeting.
- The DAX futures contract in Germany traded flat, while CAC 40 futures in France climbed 0.66%, and the FTSE 100 futures contract in the U.K. rose 0.17%.
- An ECB survey showed that Euro zone consumers raised their inflation expectations in March for the first time since the autumn, despite the rate of price growth falling and the European Central Bank raising interest rates.
- A survey showed that investor morale in the Euro zone fell unexpectedly in May, with stubborn inflation and energy concerns affecting the expectations of a spring recovery.
- Investors are closely watching the Bank of England policy-setting meeting, where it is expected to announce its 12th straight rate hike to tackle double-figure headline inflation.
