Daily Analysis 12/08/2026

• GBP/USD Price: GBP/USD is edging lower during Wednesday's European session after ending the previous day largely unchanged.
• US-Iran tensions: President Donald Trump reiterated that Tehran should pay reparations to victims of attacks associated with Iran.
• Private employment: The preliminary ADP employment change for the four weeks ending July 25 showed an increase of only 8.3K jobs, down from 14.5K previously.
• Fed's Collins: Fed policymaker Susan Collins said she would support a September rate increase if inflation remains elevated, while noting that the Iran conflict is putting pressure on lower-income Americans.
• Housing market: July existing home sales came in at 4.06 million, broadly matching expectations of 4.05 million.

Closing statement: GBP/USD remains vulnerable around 1.3500 as renewed US-Iran tensions and the possibility of a September Fed hike support the Dollar, although weaker private employment data could limit its upside.

• XAU/USD Price: Gold maintains a firm tone above the $4,400 level during the first half of Wednesday's European session, remaining close to its highest level since June 5.
• US tax cuts: President Trump is reportedly considering capital gains tax cuts ahead of the US midterm elections, following an earlier proposal for a significant tax reduction.
• US-Iran: Commerzbank analysts noted that expectations for a near-term US-Iran agreement and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are declining as diplomatic positions have hardened.
• Rate hike: The CME FedWatch Tool shows markets pricing in more than a 75% probability of at least one US rate increase before the end of the year.
• Geopolitical risks: North Korea's ballistic missile launch has added to regional tensions ahead of planned US-South Korean military exercises, while Taiwan has also criticized planned naval drills involving China.

Closing statement: Gold maintains a bullish near-term bias above $4,400, supported by fading US-Iran diplomatic prospects and rising geopolitical risks, although strong expectations for further Fed tightening remain a significant obstacle to a sustained upside move.

• Crude Oil Price: WTI attracts buyers for the third consecutive session and is trading around $84.00 during Wednesday's European session, close to the nearly two-week high reached the previous day.
• US production: The EIA raised its forecasts for US crude production to 13.8 million barrels per day in 2026 and 14.15 million barrels per day in 2027.
• Houthi attacks: Iran-backed Houthi forces have intensified attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb, with Saudi-linked ships particularly targeted.
• Hormuz flows: US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the seven-day average of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz is around 9 million barrels per day, nearly half of pre-conflict levels.
• Ukraine-Russia: Ukraine is increasingly engaging with the US over potential peace proposals, while US officials have discussed efforts to prevent further attacks on oil tankers connected to Russia's CPC export infrastructure.

Closing statement: WTI retains a bullish short-term bias around $84.00 as severe disruptions through Hormuz and renewed Red Sea attacks support prices, although rising US production and potential progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations could limit the upside.

• DAX 40 Price: Germany's benchmark DAX 40 is trading largely unchanged around 26,420 points after extending its rally to another record high in the previous session.
• Hannover Rück: Reinsurer Hannover Rück continues to expect record annual profit despite ongoing pressure on prices in its core business. Management is maintaining its target of at least €2.7 billion in net income, providing a positive signal for the financial sector and demonstrating resilience despite challenging market conditions.
• Beiersdorf price: Berenberg reduced its price target for Beiersdorf to €72 from €82 while maintaining a 'Hold' recommendation.
• E.ON highlights: E.ON said its operating and financial performance during the first half of 2026 demonstrates the resilience of its business model despite persistent geopolitical uncertainty. The company remains committed to significant investment, with €2.97 billion invested during the period, although this was 7% lower than a year earlier.
• Inflation data: Investors are turning their attention to Germany's July Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data.

Closing statement: The DAX 40 remains firmly bullish near record highs, supported by resilient corporate earnings and strong financial-sector results, while German inflation data could provide the next catalyst for the index's direction.