Daily Analysis 13/08/2026

• GBP/USD Price: GBP/USD is trading with a negative bias for the second consecutive session, remaining below the psychologically important 1.3500 level.
• UK GDP: The UK economy expanded 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2026, matching the previous quarter's growth but exceeding the 0.4% market forecast.
• Industrial activity: Industrial Production fell 0.2% month-on-month in June, while Manufacturing Production declined 0.5%, with both figures weaker than expected.
• Iran developments: President Trump appears willing to allow the current situation with Iran to continue, while there has been little fresh progress regarding a potential Iran-Oman agreement.
• Fiscal deficit: The US federal budget deficit reached $432.3 billion in July, significantly exceeding the expected $346 billion and representing the largest monthly deficit since March 2021.

Closing statement: GBP/USD remains under pressure below 1.3500 despite stronger-than-expected UK GDP, as weak industrial data and subdued geopolitical developments offset the positive growth surprise; the Pound's outlook could improve if markets increasingly price a more resilient UK economy.

• XAU/USD Price: Gold retreated after reaching a fresh high since June 5 near $4,450 during the Asian session on Thursday and is now trading toward the lower end of its daily range.
• US-Iran talks: The US and Iran remain divided over efforts to establish a permanent end to the Gulf conflict, with no progress reported toward reviving the interim agreement reached in June.
• Fed rate: Markets have reduced the probability of a September Federal Reserve rate hike to around 40%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
• US-China: US-China "Board of Investment" discussions have reportedly stalled ahead of the expected Trump-Xi meeting later in September.
• US PPI: Investors are awaiting the July US Producer Price Index, due later Thursday. A stronger-than-expected PPI reading could revive concerns about persistent inflation and potentially push Fed rate expectations higher, while a softer result would reinforce the recent decline in rate-hike expectations and could support gold.

Closing statement: Gold retains a bullish underlying bias despite its pullback from $4,450, with fading Fed hike expectations and persistent geopolitical tensions providing support; the US PPI report could determine whether the metal resumes its advance or undergoes a deeper correction.

• Crude Oil Price: WTI is trading around $83.30 during Thursday's European session, remaining close to the nearly two-week high reached the previous day.
• IEA warning: The International Energy Agency expects global oil supply to decline by 4.3 million barrels per day this year, potentially creating a 1.8 million bpd deficit during Q3.
• US inventories: The EIA reported a massive 17.42 million-barrel increase in US commercial crude inventories, the largest weekly build since January 2023.
• OPEC outlook: OPEC expects global oil demand to increase by approximately 580,000 barrels per day year-on-year. The forecast is more optimistic than some market participants might expect given elevated refined-product prices, but if realized, stronger demand would help absorb supply disruptions and support crude prices.
• Ukraine-Russia: Ukraine launched a major drone and missile attack on Russia's port city of Novorossiysk, causing significant damage to grain export terminals and infrastructure near a major Russian naval base.

Closing statement: WTI retains a bullish underlying bias around $83.30, supported by the IEA's projected global supply deficit and heightened geopolitical risks, although the exceptionally large US inventory build represents a significant bearish counterweight.

• DAX 40 Price: Germany's benchmark DAX 40 is trading almost unchanged around 26,410 points after its latest advance.
• German inflation: Germany's final July CPI was confirmed at 0.8% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, unchanged from the preliminary estimates.
• Rhine levels: Critically low water levels on the Rhine are becoming an increasing concern for the German economy, as inland waterways normally transport around 5% of the country's goods.
• Italian investments: Italian companies have completed more than 100 acquisitions and commercial agreements worth €17.8 billion in Germany since 2023. The growing investment footprint, led by UniCredit but extending across media, industry, transport and infrastructure, highlights continued foreign interest in Europe's largest economy.
• Labor market: German companies increasingly expect artificial intelligence to widen wage disparities while average working hours decline. The debate over whether Germany should improve competitiveness through longer working hours or instead focus on skills, technology and productivity gains could have important long-term implications for corporate profitability and economic growth.

Closing statement: The DAX 40 remains bullish but is consolidating near record levels; solid foreign investment and corporate resilience provide support, while elevated inflation and drought-related supply risks represent potential obstacles to further gains.