Daily Analysis 14/01/2026

• GBP/USD Price: GBP/USD is trading modestly higher around 1.3455, reflecting a mild risk-on tone and some near-term USD softness during European hours.
• BoE guidance: Comments from BoE policymaker Alan Taylor reinforce expectations that UK rates are heading toward neutral, with inflation potentially returning to target by mid-2026. This supports the narrative of gradual easing rather than aggressive cuts, lending some stability to the Pound.
• US inflation: December CPI surprised to the downside. Headline inflation rose +0.3% m/m SA, while core CPI grew at a slower pace of +0.2% m/m (cons: +0.3% m/m).
• US growth: The US small business confidence index increased by 0.5 points to 99.5 last month. The NFIB's December survey indicated that US small business optimism improved towards the end of last year.
• UK data: Focus shifts to UK GDP and factory output data. A modest +0.1% GDP print would confirm sluggish but positive growth, critical for near-term GBP direction.

Closing statement: GBP/USD remains supported in the mid-1.34s, helped by softer US inflation and a measured BoE tone. If UK GDP meets or beats expectations, the pair could test the 1.3500–1.3550 area. Conversely, weak UK data or a rebound in USD sentiment could trigger a pullback toward 1.3350–1.3400, keeping the broader range intact for now.

• XAU/USD Price: Gold has rebounded sharply and is trading near record highs around $4,636, reflecting strong bullish momentum and persistent demand for hard assets.
• Political risk: Markets are on edge ahead of the US Supreme Court opinion day, which could include an initial ruling on President Trump’s global tariffs. Legal and trade uncertainty continues to support safe-haven flows into gold.
• China data: China’s December trade data beat expectations decisively, with exports up 6.6% y/y and a record annual trade surplus. While this signals resilient global demand, renewed tariff tensions in 2025 reinforce hedging demand via gold.
• Fed's Musalem: St. Louis Fed President Musalem acknowledged solid growth and inflation still closer to 3% than 2%, though easing is expected this year. This keeps real rates relatively contained and limits downside pressure on gold.
• Fed tension: President Trump’s renewed public pressure on Fed Chair Powell to deliver “a big rate cut” raises concerns about Fed independence, undermining confidence in the USD and further benefiting gold.

Closing statement: XAU/USD remains firmly bullish, supported by political risk, tariff uncertainty, and pressure for looser US monetary policy. A sustained break above the current record zone could open the door toward $4,700 and beyond. However, if Fed rhetoric turns more convincingly hawkish or legal risks fade, Gold could see near-term consolidation or a corrective pullback toward the $4,550–4,580 area, without threatening the broader uptrend.

• Crude Oil Price: WTI continues to trade firmly above $60, hovering around $60.80, signaling resilient bullish momentum after the recent rally.
• US inventories: The API reported a sizeable crude build of 5.27 million barrels, reversing last week’s draw. This points to near-term supply pressure and may cap further upside unless confirmed otherwise by official EIA data.
• China demand: Chinese crude oil imports hit a record high in 2025, rising 4.4% y/y to 11.55 mbpd. This underscores strong underlying demand from the world’s largest oil importer and provides a structural support for prices.
• European supply: Norway’s offering of 57 new production licenses suggests Western Europe aims to sustain elevated output levels for years, reinforcing medium-term supply availability.
• Geopolitical risk: Escalating unrest in Iran, with rising casualties and explicit US support for protesters, keeps geopolitical risk premiums embedded in oil prices, given Iran’s role as a major OPEC producer.

Closing statement: WTI remains supported above $60, helped by strong Chinese demand and elevated geopolitical risk. However, inventory builds and prospects of sustained non-OPEC supply could limit near-term gains. A sustained hold above $60.00–60.50 keeps the bias tilted toward a push into the $62–64 area, while confirmation of rising stockpiles or easing geopolitical tensions could trigger a pullback toward $58.50–59.00 without necessarily breaking the broader constructive trend.

• DAX Price: The DAX is consolidating around 25,400 points after breaking to fresh all-time highs, suggesting strong underlying momentum but with signs of near-term digestion at elevated levels.
• Corporate news: Audi reported a 2.9% decline in full-year deliveries, with notable weakness in China (-5.0%) and North America (-12.2%). This highlights ongoing pressure on German automakers from US tariffs and intense competition in China, a key structural headwind for the index.
• Labor data: US NFP disappointed at 50k, below expectations, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.4% and wage growth accelerated to 3.8% YoY. The mixed signal supports a soft-landing narrative but keeps rate uncertainty alive.
• Monetary policy: A joint statement from major central banks, including the ECB and BoE, strongly defending central bank independence and backing Fed Chair Powell helped reassure markets and anchor policy credibility.
• Macro sentiment: The combination of weaker headline US job growth and firmer wages supports risk assets, while avoiding a sharp repricing toward tighter financial conditions.

Closing statement: The DAX remains structurally bullish after its record breakout, supported by global risk appetite and policy credibility. However, auto-sector weakness and valuation sensitivity at highs could lead to short-term consolidation. A sustained hold above 25,300–25,350 keeps the door open for a push toward 25,700–26,000, while failure to hold this zone may trigger a healthy pullback toward 25,000–24,800 without threatening the broader uptrend.