Daily Analysis 14/08/2026

• GBP/USD Price: GBP/USD is gaining strength during Friday's early European session and is trading near the psychologically important 1.3500 level.
• BoE's Pill: BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill said stronger-than-expected UK economic growth has reinforced the case for higher borrowing costs to bring inflation back toward target.
• US PPI: US wholesale prices were unchanged in July, below the 0.2% increase expected by markets, following a 0.1% decline in June. The softer PPI reading reduces concerns about accelerating inflation and could weaken expectations for further Fed tightening, creating additional support for GBP/USD.
• US-Iran: Societe Generale highlighted the trajectory of the US-Iran conflict as the key risk for GBP/USD and the broader UK outlook.
• Upcoming data: Traders will focus on the July US Retail Sales report later Friday for additional evidence about the strength of American consumer spending.

Closing statement: GBP/USD has a mildly bullish near-term bias as stronger UK growth and hawkish BoE commentary combine with softer US inflation data, but the 1.3500 level and upcoming US Retail Sales report could determine whether the pair can extend its advance.

• XAU/USD Price: Gold is continuing to retreat for a second consecutive day after failing to sustain the move toward $4,450, its highest level since June 5.
• New tariffs: US President Trump said he will impose new tariffs on drone imports and components, arguing the country is "too reliant" on foreign suppliers. The measures include 100% tariffs on larger drones, 25% on smaller drones, 15% on drones and components from the EU, Japan, South Korea, Switzerland, Taiwan and Liechtenstein, and 10% on imports from the UK.
• Fed rate: Markets have reduced the probability of a September Fed rate hike to 34.8%, down from 40% immediately following the PPI release.
• Chinese data: China is due to release July retail sales and housing data, with expectations for continued weakness in both areas.
• Labor market: Initial jobless claims increased to 209,000 last week from a revised 200,000, exceeding expectations of 205,000. Although layoffs remain historically low, the modest deterioration in labor-market conditions adds to evidence that the US economy may be gradually losing momentum, potentially reinforcing expectations for lower interest rates.

Closing statement: Gold remains in a bullish medium-term environment but faces short-term correction pressure after its move toward $4,450; falling Fed rate-hike expectations and softer US labor data remain supportive, while profit-taking and potentially weak Chinese demand could keep the metal under pressure in the near term.

• Crude Oil Price: WTI is trading around $82.30 during Friday's early European session, remaining close to the recent two-week highs.
• Strait of Hormuz: An IRGC official said the Strait of Hormuz remains under Iran's control, directly contradicting President Trump's claim that the US has "total control" over the waterway.
• Houthi attacks: Iran-backed Houthi forces have intensified attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait and reportedly claimed a drone strike against a Saudi Aramco refinery.
• Hormuz Traffic: Although vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz increased slightly on Thursday, it remains well below the August daily average of 12 vessels and dramatically below pre-war levels of roughly 130–140 ships per day.
• OPEC forecast: OPEC reduced its 2026 global oil-demand growth forecast to 580,000 barrels per day from 780,000 bpd previously.

Closing statement: WTI maintains a bullish bias around $82.30, supported by severe disruption risks around Hormuz and the Red Sea, although OPEC's lower demand forecast represents an important downside factor; further developments around regional shipping and energy infrastructure will likely determine the next major move.

• DAX 40 Price: Germany's benchmark DAX 40 is trading higher around 26,450 points, continuing to hold near its record levels.
• Industrial production: Eurozone industrial production was unchanged in June, matching expectations, while the previous month's figure was revised significantly higher from -0.2% to +0.3% month-on-month.
• GDP data: Markets are awaiting the second estimate of Eurozone Q2 GDP, including employment and country-level details. The initial estimate showed solid growth of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, and confirmation of this figure would reinforce the view that the European economy is proving relatively resilient.
• Auto industry: Employment in Germany's automotive industry has fallen to 691,500 workers, the lowest level since 2005. The continued decline highlights structural challenges facing one of Germany's most important industrial sectors.
• E.ON outlook: Barclays raised its price target for E.ON to €20 after the company delivered a steady first half of 2026 and reiterated its full-year guidance. E.ON reported €5.40 billion in adjusted EBITDA for the first six months, while the new OVO deal adds another positive element to the company's growth outlook.

Closing statement: The DAX 40 retains a bullish bias near record highs, supported by resilient Eurozone growth and solid corporate performance, although structural weakness in Germany's automotive sector remains a significant medium-term risk.