Daily Analysis 15/09/2025

• GBP/USD Price: GBP/USD posts modest gains near 1.3560 during Monday’s European session, showing cautious strength ahead of key risk events.
• BoE Policy: The Bank of England will announce its decision on Thursday and is widely expected to hold rates at 4%, keeping a wait-and-see stance after earlier cuts this year.
• UK Economy: Weak July GDP and factory output continue to weigh on sentiment, signaling a fragile economic backdrop that could limit sterling’s upside.
• Fiscal Policy: Finance Minister Rachel Reeves pledged a tight grip on spending ahead of the November 26 budget, as tax hikes and cuts in public expenditure challenge growth momentum.
• US Data: Attention later shifts to the release of the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index, which could influence dollar dynamics and near-term GBP/USD moves.

Closing statement: GBP/USD trades near 1.3560, with direction dependent on the BoE policy outcome, UK’s fiscal stance, and upcoming US economic data. The pair faces upside constraints amid weak domestic growth signals.

• XAU/USD Price: Gold (XAU/USD) attracts dip-buying near $3,627, but the move lacks momentum as the metal remains confined in a narrow one-week range.
• US Inflation: US PPI data highlighted how businesses first raised margins in July ahead of tariffs, then absorbed costs in August, showing signs of pricing pressure stabilization.
• Rate Cut Odds: Markets are pricing a 100% probability of a Fed rate cut at Wednesday’s meeting, marking the first easing in nine months and a key driver for gold demand.
• Geopolitical Risk: Tensions rose as an Iranian lawmaker urged Qatar to host Iranian missiles and expel US forces, adding a fresh layer of Middle East instability that supports safe-haven flows.
• Central Bank Week: This week is heavy with central bank risk: Fed and BoC on Wednesday, BoE on Thursday, BoJ on Friday—events that could set gold’s short-term trajectory.

Closing statement: Gold holds steady near $3,635, supported by Fed rate cut bets and geopolitical risk, though upside momentum remains capped until this week’s central bank decisions clarify the global monetary outlook.

• Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades higher at $62.80 early Monday, extending gains from last week’s close at $62.37 but showing limited momentum.
• Supply Outlook: The OPEC+ decision to raise production in October continues to weigh on sentiment, with oversupply fears restraining bullish positioning in crude.
• Corporate Developments: Chevron and ConocoPhillips both announced major cost-cutting workforce reductions following acquisitions, signaling efforts to streamline operations and preserve profitability despite uncertain price dynamics.
• China Data: China’s economy showed signs of stalled growth in August: retail sales slowed to 3.4%, industrial output to 5.2%, and fixed-asset investment hit its weakest pace since the pandemic—posing a demand risk for oil markets.
• Geopolitical Tensions: Ukraine escalated attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, while the US pushed NATO allies to tighten sanctions and impose tariffs on Russian oil buyers, raising the stakes for energy supply chains.

Closing statement: WTI oil edges up to $62.80, but gains remain capped by oversupply fears, weak Chinese demand, and geopolitical tensions. The market’s direction hinges on whether demand concerns or geopolitical risks dominate in the short term.

• DAX Price: The DAX opened slightly higher on Monday and is currently trading near 23,785 points, showing cautious optimism at the start of the week.
• Corporate Developments: Rheinmetall expanded its defense footprint by acquiring NVL, the naval unit of Lürssen Group, strengthening its position in military shipbuilding.
• France Rating; Fitch downgraded France’s credit rating to A+ from AA-, citing rising debt and political instability. This downgrade could pressure broader European sentiment despite recent government formation.
• US Inflation: The University of Michigan survey indicated inflation expectations rising, with 1-year at 4.8% and 5-year at 3.9%. These levels above the Fed’s target could influence global risk sentiment and tighten financial conditions.
• China Data: China’s industrial production slowed to its weakest in 12 months, while retail sales fell to a nine-month low, adding to global growth concerns that may weigh on export-heavy indices like the DAX.

Closing statement: The DAX holds near 23,785 with a cautious upside, supported by defense sector strength, but risks linger from European credit downgrades, US inflation pressures, and slowing Chinese growth. Direction will hinge on whether global headwinds outweigh domestic corporate resilience.