EURUSD
- EUR/USD Price: The EUR/USD pair struggles to extend Friday’s modest rebound from the mid-1.1400s, its lowest level since late July. The pair edges lower at the start of the new week as the Euro remains vulnerable to renewed selling pressure.
- Inflation expectations: Inflation expectations in the ECB’s consumer survey increased slightly in August. The one-year median expectation rose to 3.0% year-over-year, while the three-year expectation increased to 2.9%, indicating that consumers continue to anticipate elevated price pressures.
- Price pressures: The European Central Bank warned that inflationary pressures could persist for longer than previously anticipated. The more cautious inflation outlook could influence expectations for the ECB’s future policy path and provide some support to the Euro.
- Geopolitical risks: European officials warned of potential Russian drone, missile, sabotage and cyber operations targeting NATO countries supporting Ukraine in the coming months.
- Lagarde speech: in Focus The economic calendar starts quietly on Monday, with no major scheduled releases for the FX market. Investors will nevertheless monitor comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde and BoC Governor Tiff Macklem for clues on monetary policy and the broader currency outlook.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising |  |
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| RSI (14) | Falling |  | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling | | |
Closing statement: EUR/USD remains under pressure after failing to sustain its rebound from the mid-1.1400s. Higher Eurozone inflation expectations and the ECB’s warning about persistent price pressures could offer some support to the Euro, while geopolitical risks and upcoming central-bank commentary remain key factors for the pair.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD Price: The GBP/USD pair struggles to extend Friday’s rebound from the 1.1335 area, its lowest level since July 30.
- BoE rate: The Bank of England left its Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% last Thursday, in line with expectations, with the Monetary Policy Committee voting 6-3. Pill, Greene and Mann again supported a rate hike, highlighting continued differences within the committee over the appropriate policy stance.
- Middle East: Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen said they attacked sensitive sites in Riyadh with missiles and drones on Saturday.
- Industrial activity: US industrial production was unchanged month-over-month in August, below expectations for a 0.3% increase, while manufacturing output fell 0.3% after rising 0.2% in July. The decline in manufacturing ended seven consecutive months of growth and points to weaker momentum in the US industrial sector.
- Data ahead: Traders will turn to the preliminary UK and US PMI releases for fresh signals on economic activity.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling | |
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| RSI (14) | Falling | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: GBP/USD remains under pressure after failing to sustain its rebound from 1.1335. The BoE’s cautious stance and weaker US industrial data provide mixed signals, while geopolitical risks and upcoming UK and US flash PMIs could determine the pair’s next short-term move.
XAUUSD
- XAU/USD Price: Gold (XAU/USD) remains under modest selling pressure during the early European session on Monday, trading around $4,350. The precious metal is down more than 0.50% on the day as traders consolidate recent moves.
- Fed rate: The US Federal Reserve raised borrowing costs at the end of its September meeting last Wednesday, marking its first rate hike in more than three years.
- US-Iran: The US and Iran exchanged fresh threats over the weekend, keeping geopolitical risks in focus. However, President Trump indicated that he may meet with Iran’s president during this week’s UN General Assembly, potentially opening the door to diplomatic developments.
- Greenland agreement: An agreement involving the US, Denmark and Greenland is reportedly expected to be signed on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York this week.
- Trump-Xi meeting: The main geopolitical focus will be Thursday’s meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: XAU/USD remains under pressure around $4,350 as higher US borrowing costs weigh on the precious metal. At the same time, US-Iran tensions and the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting could generate volatility, with geopolitical developments likely to remain important for gold’s short-term direction.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) turns lower for a fourth consecutive day after a modest gap-up opening toward $98.30.
- Strait of Hormuz: Iran said it would not reopen the Strait of Hormuz or return to negotiations with the US until Washington meets its conditions.
- Hormuz shipments: Geopolitical tensions remain high after the Houthis reported attacks on sensitive sites in Riyadh and an Aramco facility in Yanbu over the weekend. However, increased shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and a partial recovery in Saudi exports have reduced the immediate geopolitical risk premium in oil prices.
- G7 consideration: French President Emmanuel Macron is calling for the G7 to discuss another release of emergency oil stocks.
- Oil inventories: IEA members have released more than 300 million barrels from emergency reserves since March. Despite these releases, global observed inventories remain 507 million barrels below their level when the war began, following average withdrawals of 2.8 million barrels per day over the past six months.
| SMA (20) | Rising | | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising | |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising | | |
Closing statement: WTI remains under pressure below $100 despite persistent geopolitical risks, as improving shipments through Hormuz and partial Saudi export recovery reduce the immediate supply premium. However, deeply depleted global inventories and potential further emergency stock releases keep the oil market highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East.
DAX
- DAX 40 Price: The DAX 40 is trading back above the 25,500-point level during Monday’s European morning session.
- Regional elections: Weigh on CDU Chancellor Merz’s CDU suffered significant setbacks in two regional elections on Sunday. Preliminary results showed the party receiving 4.9% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, below the 5% threshold, and 18.8% in Berlin, while the AfD finished ahead of the SPD in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.
- ECB succession: Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel is reportedly considered unlikely to succeed ECB President Christine Lagarde, according to press reports.
- Bundesbank report: The Bundesbank is due to publish its monthly report reviewing Germany’s economic situation.
- Data ahead: Preliminary September PMI data for major economies will be released on Wednesday and will be closely watched by markets.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: The DAX 40 remains above 25,500 as investors balance domestic political uncertainty against expectations for continued European economic momentum. Germany’s Bundesbank report and Wednesday’s euro-area PMIs will provide important signals on growth and the potential direction of ECB policy, with manufacturing activity likely to remain a key focus.