EURUSD
- The US dollar's recent rally against certain peers seemed to be losing momentum, particularly in anticipation of the upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Symposium scheduled to begin on Thursday. The symposium was expected to include updated economic assessments.
- During the symposium, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell could reiterate a data-dependent approach to monetary policy, avoiding any strong commitments. His speech was expected to provide insights into the central bank's future moves.
- The analysis pointed out that while the EUR/USD pair had experienced two consecutive days of gains, its potential for further bullish movement remained restricted. The pair was seen trading below a flat 100 Simple Moving Average (SMA), acting as a resistance level around 1.0930.
- On Tuesday, the Euro Zone is set to release the June Current Account data, while the US will publish figures related to July Existing Home Sales and the August Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index.
- During the American afternoon, some Federal Reserve officials are expected to share their perspectives on various matters. Their statements could provide additional insights into the central bank's policy outlook.
| SMA (20) | Falling |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising |
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Closing statement: The US dollar's recent rally appeared to stall as markets looked ahead to the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's potential remarks. The EUR/USD pair managed a modest gain but faced resistance at the 100 Simple Moving Average. Economic data releases and insights from Fed officials were anticipated to drive market dynamics.
GBPUSD
- The analysis highlighted that the GBP/USD pair was gaining momentum around the 1.2770 level as the European session approached on Tuesday.
- It also noted that GBP/USD was starting the new week on a cautious note, with investors refraining from making significant moves in anticipation of upcoming key data releases and events.
- The analysis mentioned that the pair had experienced downward pressure after UK data from the previous week indicated robust wage inflation and persistent core consumer inflation. This led to market expectations of a higher terminal rate from the Bank of England (BoE).
- There were insights from Commerzbank analysts, who suggested that the BoE might raise key rates twice more by the end of the year and potentially take additional action in 2024, based on the implications of the UK's inflation readings.
- On Wednesday, S&P Global is scheduled to release preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI reports for both the UK and the US, which could impact market sentiment.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Neutral |
Closing statement: The analysis detailed the momentum gathering around GBP/USD near the 1.2770 level. It highlighted cautious trading ahead of key data releases and the potential impact of UK inflation on BoE policy. Additionally, upcoming preliminary PMI reports were expected to influence market dynamics.
GOLD
- The analysis highlighted that gold prices experienced a slight rise on Tuesday, finding some relief from a weaker dollar that retreated from its two-month highs. However, concerns about the impact of higher U.S. interest rates continued to temper the outlook for the precious metal markets.
- The US Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, is scheduled to speak on Friday at a meeting of central bankers, which is expected to be closely watched by the market participants.
- The analysis noted that above-expected industrial production, retail sales, and solid housing starts in the US raised the possibility that inflation might have increased in July, potentially indicating the need for additional monetary tightening.
- The 10-year yields surged to their highest level in over 20 years during the week, reflecting market positioning for the potential scenario of higher U.S. interest rates being sustained.
- The analysis concluded by pointing out that there were no clear indications of a reversal yet, with gold trading below its 200-day Moving Average for the first time this year over the past five days.
Closing statement: The analysis detailed gold's minor price increase amid a weaker dollar, with concerns about higher U.S. interest rates still impacting the market sentiment. The upcoming speech by Jerome Powell and the effect of recent US economic data were highlighted as crucial factors. Additionally, the challenging technical situation for gold, including its trading below the 200-day MA, was emphasized.
CRUDE OIL
- The analysis highlighted that crude oil prices remained within a tight range on Tuesday, following a weak start to the week. Market participants were assessing the potential impact of softer Chinese demand following a disappointing interest rate cut. Additionally, they were awaiting further signals about U.S. monetary policy.
- The Iraq's oil minister, Hayan Abdel-Ghani, arrived in Ankara to discuss various matters, including the resumption of oil exports through the Ceyhan oil terminal. This discussion was prompted by Turkey's halt of Iraq's 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) exports through the northern Iraq-Turkey pipeline in March.
- The potential significance of more Iraqi crude oil entering the market is essential, which could help alleviate the supply crunch for sour crude. This could have implications considering the prolonged and deepened production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+).
- The expectations from a preliminary Reuters poll indicated that U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories were likely to have fallen in the previous week. The American Petroleum Institute (API) is scheduled to release its data later on Tuesday.
- The analysis concluded by noting the ongoing tight range of crude oil prices, influenced by mixed market sentiment surrounding Chinese demand and U.S. monetary policy. The discussion between Iraq and Turkey regarding oil exports, the potential impact of more Iraqi crude on the supply situation, and the anticipation of U.S. inventory data were emphasized as key factors shaping the market dynamics.
| SMA (20) | Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling |
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Closing statement: The analysis provided an overview of the current state of crude oil prices, which were trading within a narrow range due to a blend of factors including Chinese demand concerns and U.S. monetary policy signals. The ongoing discussions about Iraq-Turkey oil exports, the potential supply impact of Iraqi crude, and expectations for U.S. inventory data were all underlined as significant market drivers.
DAX
- The analysis began by highlighting that the DAX experienced a relatively bullish session on Monday, gaining 0.19%.
- The analysis pointed out the mixed economic news from Germany. It reported that the July Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 1.1% MoM and 6% YoY, suggesting a decline in inflationary pressures.
- The release of the Bundesbank's monthly report raised concerns about persistent wage pressures that could potentially have a negative impact on inflation control efforts.
- The analysis explained that the more pronounced decline in the July PPI, compared to the surge driven by the Ukraine conflict in 2022, was attributed to falling energy prices. Moreover, producer prices excluding energy also declined by 0.4%, reflecting weakened demand conditions.
- Continental AG emerged as the best performer due to reports about its plans to divest the ContiTech car unit as part of strategic restructuring aimed at enhancing profitability.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling |
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Closing statement: The analysis provided insights into the DAX's recent market performance, including Monday's relatively bullish session. It discussed mixed economic news from Germany, focusing on the decline in the July PPI and the concerns raised by the Bundesbank about wage pressures affecting inflation. The impact of energy prices on the PPI and Continental AG's performance were also emphasized as key points in the market landscape.