EURUSD
- EUR/USD Price: The EUR/USD remains range-bound around 1.0800 during the European morning on Tuesday. Weak risk appetite and a subdued US Dollar keep the pair directionless.
- Eurozone Business Activity: Monday’s flash PMI showed that Eurozone business activity grew at its fastest pace in seven months in March, suggesting improving economic momentum.
- ECB's Escriva: ECB Governing Council member Jose Luis Escriva warned on Monday that risks to the Eurozone economy remain tilted to the downside due to US political uncertainty and global instability.
- ECB's Kazimir: Peter Kazimir, Governor of the National Bank of Slovakia and ECB Governing Council member, will present Slovakia’s latest economic forecasts and share his monetary policy outlook.
- Data Focus: The German IFO index is the key European release, while the US session will focus on the US Consumer Confidence report, which has weakened in recent months due to tariff uncertainty.
| SMA (20) | Rising |  | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling |  |
|
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising | | |
Closing statement: EUR/USD remains stuck in a narrow range, with improving Eurozone business activity offset by ongoing US political uncertainty and cautious ECB commentary.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD Price: GBP/USD remains steady above 1.2900 in Tuesday's European session. The pair struggles to find momentum as traders remain cautious amid lingering uncertainty over US tariffs.
- UK PMIs: Monday’s UK PMIs exceeded expectations, with the S&P Global Services PMI rising to 53.2 from the previous month’s 51, supporting the Pound.
- BoE Rate Cut: Market expectations for a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut in May have moderated, with the probability of a 25-basis-point cut falling to 60% from higher levels.
- Fed’s Bostic: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic cautioned that inflation progress may be slower than expected due to ongoing price pressures and trade-related uncertainty, prompting a downward revision in his 2025 rate cut outlook.
- UK Spring Budget: Traders are eyeing the UK spring budget release on Wednesday and the impact of month-end/quarter-end flows for potential trading cues.
| SMA (20) | Rising | | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling | |
|
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising | | |
Closing statement: GBP/USD remains range-bound above 1.2900, supported by strong UK PMIs but facing headwinds from global trade uncertainty and mixed central bank signals.
XAUUSD
- XAU/USD Price: Gold price steadies above the $3,000 mark early Tuesday, recovering from a three-day losing streak as traders digest mixed market signals.
- US Tariffs: Hopes that Trump’s reciprocal tariffs set for April 2 will be less strict than initially feared are supporting global risk appetite, reducing demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
- Fed Outlook: The Federal Reserve lowered its 2025 growth forecast and raised its inflation outlook last week, but maintained its outlook for two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2025, capping further downside for Gold.
- Geopolitical Developments: Russian media reported that a joint US-Russia statement on a narrow Black Sea maritime ceasefire proposal is expected Tuesday after talks in Saudi Arabia.
- China's Stimulus Plans: A Financial Times report suggests that China may expand its subsidy program to include services, boosting market confidence and weighing on Gold’s safe-haven demand.
| SMA (20) | Rising | | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising | |
|
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising | | |
Closing statement: Gold remains supported above $3,000, but improved risk sentiment from easing tariff fears and China’s stimulus plans could limit upside potential.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades around $69.20 per barrel early Tuesday, holding steady after recent volatility.
- Trump Tariffs: Late Monday, Trump announced a 25% tariff on all imports from any country buying oil or gas from Venezuela, effective April 2, along with new direct tariffs on Venezuela.
- Chevron's Venezuela License: The US Treasury extended Chevron Corp.’s general license to produce and export Venezuelan oil until May 27, exempting Venezuela from broader economic sanctions for now.
- Middle East Conflict: Israel resumed airstrikes in Gaza, ending a nearly two-month ceasefire. Prime Minister Netanyahu vowed to act with increased military strength to free hostages and disarm Hamas.
- US Economic Data: Traders are eyeing Tuesday's US data, including the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, New Home Sales, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index for further market direction.
| SMA (20) | Falling | | |
| RSI (14) | Rising | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: WTI remains steady around $69.20, with geopolitical tensions and Trump’s new Venezuela tariffs providing mixed signals for oil market direction.
DAX
- DAX Price: The DAX remains directionless, hovering around its 21-day moving average at 22,831 points after last week’s strong performance.
- China's GDP: China’s 2025 GDP growth target of around 5% signals confidence that a renewed US-China trade war won’t derail its economic trajectory, with policy focused on boosting domestic consumption.
- Morgan Stanley Forecast: Morgan Stanley raised its 2025 GDP growth forecast for China to 4.5% (up from 4.0%), reflecting growing optimism over China’s economic outlook.
- US Services PMI: The US S&P Global Services PMI climbed from 51.0 in February to 53.2 in March, reinforcing strength in the US economy and easing recession fears.
- Business Climate: Traders expect an improvement in the German Ifo Business Climate index, supported by recent fiscal reforms aimed at stimulating the German economy.
| SMA (20) | Rising | | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising | |
|
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: DAX remains in consolidation mode, with positive economic signals from China and the US providing support while German fiscal reforms could offer further upside.