EURUSD
- The EUR/USD pair retraced after a brief rebound, settling near significant technical levels following a fade around 1.0870.
- The US Dollar displayed renewed strength as it gained momentum ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday.
- Despite mixed US data and no distinct signals from Fed members, the US Dollar strengthened on Thursday.
- US Durable Goods Orders experienced a notable decline of 5.2% in July, deviating from the market consensus of a 4% drop. Conversely, Initial Jobless Claims saw an improvement, declining to 230,000, surpassing the market's expected 240,000.
- European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Mario Centeno adopted a cautious tone on Thursday, highlighting the realization of downside risks to the economy. His dovish remarks align with the recent downward shift in expectations regarding the ECB's further monetary policy tightening, contributing to the observed weakness in EUR/USD.
| SMA (20) | Falling |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling |
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Closing statement: In summary, the EUR/USD retraced after a fleeting rebound, finding itself near significant technical levels. The US Dollar gained strength ahead of Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Despite mixed US data and no clear signals from the Fed, the Dollar exhibited renewed vigor. The ECB's Mario Centeno's cautious stance added to the weakening sentiment in EUR/USD, influenced by dwindling expectations of additional monetary policy tightening.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD underwent significant fluctuations on Wednesday, initially dropping towards 1.2600, but then executing a sharp U-turn to close virtually unchanged above 1.2700. However, the pair faced renewed downward pressure in Thursday's European session, breaching the 1.2700 level.
- Following the release of disappointing UK Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, Pound Sterling experienced selling pressure as market participants reevaluated the Bank of England's rate outlook.
- Current market sentiment reflects a probability of less than 50% for the Bank of England's peak rate to reach 6%, as reported by Reuters. This recalibration suggests a more cautious stance towards the potential for interest rate increases.
- Conversely, underwhelming US PMI readings on Wednesday caused the US Dollar to reverse its daily gains in the American session. This shift in Dollar strength aided GBP/USD in shaking off some of its bearish pressure.
- The focal point in the US for the day is the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Survey, which is expected to attract attention amid the broader context of the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling |
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Closing statement: GBP/USD demonstrated notable volatility as it first declined and then sharply rebounded on Wednesday, only to experience renewed selling pressure on Thursday. Dismal UK PMI data contributed to Pound Sterling's weakening as investors reexamined the Bank of England's rate outlook. Meanwhile, the USD reacted to US PMI figures, causing the pair to recover some of its losses. As the day unfolds, the focus shifts to the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Survey in the US and anticipation builds around the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium.
GOLD
- Gold prices experienced a slight decline on Friday, as market sentiment leaned towards the US Dollar in anticipation of further insights into U.S. monetary policy at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Despite this, signs of weakening growth provided some support to gold's value.
- Gold was on track for its first positive week in five, recovering from its earlier dip to five-month lows in August. Notably, despite Friday's minor losses, spot prices managed to hold above the significant threshold of $1,900 per ounce.
- A strengthening US Dollar, supported by declines in US stocks and a rebound in US Treasury yields, contributed to the preference for the dollar over gold. The increase in yields has elevated the opportunity cost of holding gold, limiting its gains over the past year.
- The market's focus this week was influenced by weak purchasing managers' index (PMI) readings from various economies, including the U.S., euro zone, and Japan. Attention now shifts towards China's upcoming PMI data, expected next week.
- The ongoing Jackson Hole Symposium, which provides insights into U.S. monetary policy and the economic outlook, remains a pivotal event influencing gold's dynamics.
Closing statement: In summary, gold prices saw a slight decline on Friday, with the market's focus remaining on the Jackson Hole Symposium's impact on U.S. monetary policy. Despite this decline, gold managed to maintain levels above $1,900 per ounce, reflecting its recovery from August's lows. The influence of the strengthening US Dollar, yield rebounds, and global PMI data played a role in shaping gold's recent trajectory, while market attention is poised for China's forthcoming PMI figures.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude oil prices experienced a rise but were on track for a second consecutive week of decline on Friday. The dollar's strengthening ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech contributed to this mixed performance, while supply-related concerns also played a role.
- The ongoing discussions between Turkey and Iraq's Kurdistan regional government regarding northern Iraqi crude oil exports have garnered attention. Previous attempts to restart these exports earlier in the week were unsuccessful, underscoring the complexity of the situation.
- Attention remains fixed on Iran's oil sector, with its oil minister forecasting that the country's crude oil output will reach 3.4 million barrels per day by the end of September. Despite ongoing U.S. sanctions, Iran's production plans are noteworthy for the oil market.
- The potential easing of sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector is influencing market sentiment. This proposal could lead to increased imports of Venezuelan crude oil by various companies and countries.
- Analysts predict that Saudi Arabia, a major oil exporter, may extend its voluntary oil cut of 1 million barrels per day into October. This strategy reflects both the global supply uncertainties and Saudi Arabia's intent to reduce global inventories further.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling |
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Closing statement: In summary, crude oil prices recorded a rise while facing the possibility of a second consecutive week of decline. The dollar's strengthening and the upcoming speech by Jerome Powell influenced market dynamics, along with various supply-related factors. Discussions on northern Iraqi oil exports, Iran's production plans, potential sanctions relief for Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia's oil cut strategy continue to shape the market's outlook.
DAX
- The DAX snapped a three-day winning streak on Thursday, closing down 0.68%. This reversal followed a 0.15% gain seen on Wednesday, resulting in the DAX finishing the session at 15,622 points.
- Notably, the auto sector witnessed a bearish session. BMW and Volkswagen experienced losses of 1.68% and 1.37%, respectively. Other major players like Mercedes-Benz Group, Porsche, and Continental AG also struggled, with declines ranging from 0.44% to 0.92%.
- Apprehensions over a potentially hawkish Federal Reserve policy outlook, coupled with worries about China's economic performance, cast a shadow on the demand outlook for the sector. These concerns weighed on investor sentiment during the session.
- On Friday, attention will shift to Germany's upcoming economic releases, including a fresh reading of Q2 GDP and the ZEW Survey. Economists anticipate that the German economy might have stalled in the second quarter, with a projected contraction of 0.2% year-over-year.
- The Q2 GDP figures are particularly significant as they will provide valuable insights into the severity of the economic conditions during the second quarter and potentially indicate the trajectory for Q3.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling |
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| RSI (14) | Neutral | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling |
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Closing statement: The DAX's bearish reversal ended a three-day winning streak, influenced by concerns within the auto sector and broader market worries about potential Fed policies and China's economic health. Market focus will soon shift to Germany's economic data releases for further insights into the country's economic performance.