Daily Analysis 26/03/2026

• GBP/USD Price: The GBP/USD continues to slide, hovering around 1.3350 during European trading. The downside reflects stronger demand for the US Dollar amid geopolitical uncertainty.
• UK inflation: Data showed the Consumer Price Index rising 0.4% m/m in February, in line with forecasts. While stable, the reading still points to persistent inflation pressures in the UK economy.
• BoE signals: The Bank of England indicated last week that a rate hike could come as early as April. This hawkish shift reflects concerns that rising energy costs could push inflation higher.
• Geopolitical tensions: Donald Trump suggested Iran may be open to a deal, though reluctant publicly. However, Abbas Araghchi denied any negotiations, reinforcing uncertainty and boosting safe-haven demand for the USD.
• Conflict outlook: Statements from Iran indicate the conflict will continue until its own conditions are met. Prolonged instability continues to weigh on risk-sensitive currencies like the Pound.

Closing statement: GBP/USD remains under pressure as geopolitical tensions drive USD strength, with BoE hawkish expectations offering only limited support to the Pound in the near term.

• XAU/USD Price: The XAU/USD is trading around $4,450 after failing to sustain gains near $4,600. Weak technical signals, including an RSI below 50 and a bearish crossover, point to continued downside vulnerability.
• Geopolitical signals: Despite ceasefire rhetoric from Donald Trump, Iran has firmly denied any negotiations. However, reports from the The Wall Street Journal suggest more conciliatory tones in private, keeping diplomatic hopes alive.
• Hormuz disruption: The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to support oil prices, adding to global inflation pressures. This dynamic reduces the appeal of gold by reinforcing expectations of tighter monetary policy.
• Stronger data: US import prices surged 1.3% in February, the biggest increase since 2022. The data highlights persistent inflation pressures, strengthening the case for a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve.
• Hawkish policy: With inflation risks rising, markets expect central banks, particularly the Fed, to remain cautious on rate cuts. Higher interest rate expectations tend to weigh on non-yielding assets like gold.

Closing statement: Gold remains on the defensive as strong inflation data and hawkish central bank expectations outweigh geopolitical support, keeping the near-term bias tilted to the downside.

• Crude Oil Price: The West Texas Intermediate is trading around $91.90 during the European session. Prices remain supported as markets continue to price in supply risks tied to geopolitical tensions.
• IEA intervention: Sanae Takaichi urged the International Energy Agency to be ready for additional reserve releases if needed. The IEA has already deployed a record 400 million barrels, though supply disruptions remain significant and ongoing.
• Venezuela production: Venezuela increased output to 1.1 million barrels per day, signaling some recovery in global supply. However, this increase is relatively small compared to the scale of disruptions from the Middle East.
• Infrastructure attacks: A fire at the Ust-Luga oil port following a drone strike highlights growing risks to global energy infrastructure. Such disruptions, combined with earlier attacks, continue to tighten supply expectations.
• Shipping activity: China’s COSCO Shipping Lines resuming bookings toward the Middle East suggests cautious optimism around logistics. However, uncertainty remains as ceasefire talks between the US and Iran are still unclear and contested.

Closing statement: Oil remains elevated as supply disruptions and geopolitical risks outweigh partial relief from reserves and increased output, keeping the market highly sensitive to further developments.

• DAX Price: The DAX is trading lower around 22,700 points on Thursday. The downside reflects deteriorating investor sentiment and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty in Europe.
• Consumer confidence: Germany’s consumer-climate index, published by GfK, dropped to -28.0 for April from -24.8. This sharp decline signals weakening household confidence and potential pressure on consumption.
• Ifo survey: The Ifo Business Climate Index showed falling expectations (86.0 vs 90.2 prior), while the current conditions component held steady. This divergence suggests businesses remain cautious about future growth despite stable present conditions.
• Trade deal: The European Parliament is set to vote on advancing the EU-US Turnberry trade deal. The agreement includes tariff safeguards, but uncertainty remains as negotiations move toward member state approval.
• Porsche results: Porsche SE is expected to report a significant decline in profits, with analysts forecasting a 27% drop. Weak corporate earnings outlooks continue to weigh on the broader index.

Closing statement: The DAX remains under pressure as weak consumer sentiment, cautious business outlooks, and corporate earnings concerns outweigh any potential support from trade developments.