EURUSD
- EUR/USD Price: EUR/USD trades under 1.0800 in European trading on Thursday, maintaining a modest recovery from recent lows.
- US-EU Tariffs: EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic met with Trump’s trade officials to discuss avoiding steep US tariffs on EU goods, but no clear resolution emerged.
- ECB's Kazaks: ECB policymaker Martins Kazaks indicated that the central bank could continue cutting rates if baseline conditions hold, but highlighted geopolitical risks as a key factor.
- ECB Rate Cuts: Traders expect two more ECB rate cuts to around 2% by December, with a small chance of a rate hike by September 2026.
- Lagarde's Speech: Market participants await ECB President Lagarde's comments later on Thursday for further policy direction.
| SMA (20) | Rising |  | |
| RSI (14) | Falling |  | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: EUR/USD remains under pressure from geopolitical uncertainty and unclear US-EU trade outcomes, with ECB rate outlook and Lagarde's speech likely to drive near-term direction.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD Price: GBP/USD trades with a positive tone above 1.2900 in Thursday’s European session, supported by renewed US Dollar weakness.
- UK Inflation: UK inflation slowed more than expected in February, increasing the likelihood of a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut in May, which could weigh on the Pound.
- Auto Tariffs: Late Wednesday, US President Donald Trump signed a 25% tariff on auto imports, effective April 2, with collections starting the next day, adding to trade tensions.
- US Data: Traders await key US economic reports, including Initial Jobless Claims and the final Q4 GDP Annualized report, for fresh direction.
- UK Data: Focus will shift to the UK’s final Q4 GDP and Retail Sales data on Friday for further guidance on the BoE’s policy path.
| SMA (20) | Rising | | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling | |
|
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: GBP/USD remains supported by US Dollar weakness, but soft UK inflation and rising BoE rate cut expectations may limit upside momentum.
XAUUSD
- XAU/USD Price: Gold regained positive traction on Thursday as rising US trade tensions increased safe-haven demand. A modest US Dollar pullback from multi-week highs and growing Fed rate cut expectations also supported XAU/USD.
- Fed's Musalem: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem criticized Trump’s tariff policies, stating they are increasing uncertainty and pushing inflation higher, adding to economic strain.
- Fed's Goolsbee: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned that economic uncertainty may delay the next Fed rate cut, despite earlier market expectations.
- Fed's Kashkari: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari acknowledged progress in lowering inflation but stressed that additional measures are needed to hit the 2% target.
- Durable Goods Data: The US Commerce Department reported that Durable Goods Orders rose 0.9% in February, with Core Durable Goods (excluding transportation) increasing 0.7%, signaling economic resilience.
| SMA (20) | Rising | | |
| RSI (14) | Rising | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising | | |
Closing statement: Gold’s upward momentum is supported by trade tensions and rate cut bets, but resilient US economic data may limit the upside.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading around $69.40 in Thursday's European session. Prices remain supported after Trump’s 25% secondary tariff on nations buying Venezuelan oil or gas, set to take effect on April 2.
- Venezuela Tarrif: WTI price has been supported since US President Donald Trump slapped a 25% secondary tariff on nations that buy Venezuelan oil or gas, effective April 2. In 2024, the US imported $5.6 billion worth of Venezuelan oil and gas, making Venezuela one of the top foreign suppliers to the US last year. The tariff move raises supply disruption risks.
- Crude Stockpile: The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that crude oil inventories fell by 3.341 million barrels for the week ending March 21, adding to upward price momentum.
- China Signals: People’s Bank of China (PBOC) Deputy Governor Zou Lan stated that China’s monetary policy remains supportive, with potential for interest rate and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts at an appropriate time.
- US Data: Traders await Thursday’s US economic data, including the final Q4 GDP, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and Pending Home Sales – potential market movers for oil prices.
| SMA (20) | Falling | | |
| RSI (14) | Rising | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: WTI remains well-supported by tariff-driven supply risks and lower US inventories, with upcoming US data likely to influence short-term direction.
DAX
- DAX Price: The DAX faces further downside risk after a weak Wednesday, threatening to lose support from its 21-day moving average near recent consolidation levels from the record high of 23,476 points.
- Job Cuts: Germany's largest companies are responding to the domestic economic slowdown by cutting jobs. A study by EY shows that DAX-listed firms reduced their workforce last year after years of consistent job growth.
- US Tariffs: Trump announced a 25% tariff on all foreign car imports starting April 2. This directly impacts Germany, one of the largest auto exporters to the US, alongside Mexico, Japan, South Korea, and Canada.
- Economy Minister: Germany's Economy Minister stated that Germany will not back down in response to US tariffs and will support the EU's negotiation efforts to avoid an escalation.
- US Blacklist: The US blacklisted over 50 Chinese tech companies on March 26, citing national security concerns. Beijing’s measured response emphasized a call for the US to stop weaponizing trade policy.
| SMA (20) | Rising | | |
| RSI (14) | Falling | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: The DAX remains vulnerable to further losses amid weak domestic growth and US trade tensions, with investor focus shifting to EU responses and global trade developments.