Daily Analysis 28/09/2026

• GBP/USD Price: The GBP/USD pair trades higher around 1.3265 during the early European session on Monday.
• Security incident: An incident was declared over the weekend at RAF Fairford, a UK military base that has been used by the US in its campaign against Iran. Five men were arrested on suspicion of offences under the Explosive Substances Act, adding to geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the UK.
• BoE policy: Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman highlighted a growing disconnect between market pricing and their own expectations for the Bank of England’s policy path.
• BoE's Bailey: BoE Governor Andrew Bailey warned last week that persistently higher energy prices could challenge the central bank’s current stance of not raising interest rates.
• Diesel ban: A major US bank said the Pound, Euro and Latin American currencies are exposed to risks from a potential US diesel export ban, with the most immediate impact expected on direct importers.

Closing statement: GBP/USD remains supported near 1.3265, although the Pound faces uncertainty from diverging BoE policy expectations and renewed energy-market risks. Geopolitical developments and potential changes in global diesel flows could add volatility, while the BoE’s response to persistent energy-price pressures remains an important factor for the Pound.

• XAU/USD Price: Gold (XAU/USD) falls sharply to around $4,145 during the early Asian trading session on Monday.
• OCBC outlook: OCBC strategists noted that gold briefly fell below $4,250 before rebounding slightly overnight, as renewed Middle East tensions pushed oil prices higher.
• Nvidia chips: China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is reportedly planning to approve purchases of new Nvidia RTX PRO 5500 chips by companies including ByteDance and Alibaba.
• Industrial profits: China’s industrial profits rose 4.2% year-on-year in August, slowing significantly from the 11.2% growth recorded in July. The weaker performance reflects the continued weakness of domestic demand, which outweighed stronger growth in the technology sector.
• Fed officials: Federal Reserve officials Tom Barkin and Boston Fed President Susan Collins both supported the latest interest-rate increase, citing continued inflationary pressures.

Closing statement: XAU/USD remains under strong pressure near $4,145 as firm US data and hawkish Fed commentary reinforce expectations for tighter monetary policy. However, renewed Middle East tensions and higher oil prices could continue to provide some safe-haven support, potentially increasing volatility in gold.

• Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, trades around $98.50 during the early European session on Thursday.
• Ceasefire proposal: Hopes for a de-escalation in the Middle East weakened over the weekend after US President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian ceasefire offer. The proposal would have reopened the Strait of Hormuz within seven days in exchange for the US lifting its port blockade and taking other unspecified measures, leaving the key oil transit route under continued uncertainty.
• Diesel export: Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that a potential US ban on diesel exports would initially push fuel and crude prices lower. However, the bank warned that this effect would likely persist only until available storage capacity becomes constrained, after which the market impact could change.
• Middle East: Crude oil exports from the Middle East have increased to around 12.8 million barrels per day this month, according to preliminary Kpler data cited by Reuters. The recovery has been led by Saudi Arabia, which has redirected flows from western routes toward the east and is loading crude onto tankers in the Gulf of Oman through ship-to-ship transfers.
• Venezuela oil: The Trump administration is presenting Venezuela’s new oil order as a major opportunity to revive the country’s energy industry and increase production. The US-led restructuring has removed Russian and Chinese companies from previously awarded concessions and has encouraged new agreements between Venezuela and major international oil companies.

Closing statement: WTI remains elevated near $98.50 as uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continues to support crude prices. However, the recovery in Middle Eastern exports, potential changes to US diesel exports and efforts to expand Venezuelan oil production could increase supply and limit further upside pressure.

• DAX 40 Price: The DAX 40 trades around the 25,380-point level during the early European session on Tuesday.
• Volkswagen news: LG Chem and Volkswagen Group have signed a memorandum of understanding to jointly develop plastics and composite materials for next-generation vehicles.
• Airbus news: Airbus and Italy’s Leonardo are investigating a quality issue at a privately held coatings company that triggered an alert affecting around 500 A321neo aircraft.
• East Germany: The Halle Institute for Economic Research expects East Germany’s economy to grow by 0.9% in 2026, compared with 1.3% for Germany as a whole. Growth is forecast at 0.9% in 2027 and 0.4% in 2028, with the difference between eastern and western Germany expected to narrow in the coming years.
• Growth forecasts: Germany’s leading economic institutes have raised their growth forecasts for this year and next, while business sentiment improved more than expected in September. The stronger outlook suggests that Europe’s largest economy is showing resilience despite the energy-price shock associated with the Iran war.

Closing statement: The DAX 40 trades near 25,380 as improved German growth expectations and stronger business sentiment provide a supportive backdrop for equities. However, developments involving major industrial companies, including the Airbus quality investigation and Volkswagen’s new partnership, could influence individual stocks and broader market sentiment.