Daily Analysis 29/09/2026

• GBP/USD Price: The British Pound (GBP) trades lower around 1.3230 against the US Dollar during the early European session on Tuesday.
• BoE tightening: Financial markets have priced in almost 100 basis points of monetary tightening by the Bank of England over the next year. Despite these expectations, the Pound remains broadly weak, suggesting that other factors are currently weighing on GBP/USD.
• Government policy: UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy said the government cannot leave AI safeguards entirely to corporations and emphasized the importance of a stronger partnership with the European Union. He also described investment in defence as a core part of government policy during comments at the Labour Conference.
• Fed’s Cook: Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook expects inflation pressures to remain elevated in the coming months and said future rate adjustments will depend on incoming economic data.
• Data ahead: The August Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will be released later on Tuesday and will provide a fresh indication of US labour-market demand.

Closing statement: GBP/USD remains under pressure near 1.3230 despite substantial expectations for further BoE tightening, while persistent US inflation risks and data-dependent Fed policy provide support to the Dollar. The upcoming US JOLTS report will be a key near-term catalyst, particularly if it provides further evidence of resilient labour demand.

• XAU/USD Price: Gold (XAU/USD) maintains a modest recovery, trading just below the $4,150 level heading into the European session on Tuesday.
• Fed's Barr: Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr said that “further policy adjustments are likely to be needed” to bring inflation under control.
• Fed's Bowman: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said regulators expect several deliverables over the coming weeks and months, including more detailed FinCEN guidance and a possible update to Regulation CC.
• Fed rate: Markets are pricing in a 70.3% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike at the October meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
• Financial sector: The US Treasury Secretary urged the Lebanese government to take proactive steps to disrupt Iranian and Hizballah financial networks. Treasury Secretary Bessent also stressed the importance of financial-sector reforms in Lebanon to restore confidence in the country’s banking system, adding to the broader geopolitical backdrop for markets.

Closing statement: XAU/USD is showing some recovery near $4,150, but the prospect of further Fed policy tightening continues to create headwinds for gold. Elevated October rate-hike expectations and ongoing geopolitical developments will remain key factors determining whether the recovery can extend or selling pressure returns.

• Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, trades around $96.10 during the early European session on Thursday.
• Middle East: Crude oil exports from Middle Eastern producers increased to 12.8 million barrels per day in September, according to Kpler data.
• East-West Pipeline: Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline is reportedly back in use, supporting flows of around 3.5 million barrels per day. The restoration provides an additional route for Saudi crude exports and could help reduce some of the supply disruptions affecting the global oil market.
• US reserve: While improving Middle Eastern supply has added crude to global markets, the US has almost halted sales from its strategic petroleum reserves in September. The sharp reduction in reserve releases has tightened US supply conditions and could offset some of the additional barrels returning from the Middle East.
• Iran war: US President Donald Trump said the US would win the Iran war soon and that gasoline prices would subsequently fall. Meanwhile, Russia is reportedly planning to extend its diesel export ban through October, as expected, keeping refined-product supply restrictions in focus.

Closing statement: WTI remains around $96.10 as the recovery in Middle Eastern exports and the restart of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline improve global supply conditions. However, reduced US strategic-reserve sales and the continuation of Russia’s diesel export ban could limit the downward pressure on prices, while developments surrounding the Iran conflict remain the key source of uncertainty.

• DAX 40 Price: The DAX 40 trades around the 25,470-point level during the early European session on Tuesday.
• EU Budget: The Netherlands, Germany and four other countries have reportedly issued an ultimatum to the European Union over its upcoming seven-year budget, according to the Financial Times. The countries are demanding spending cuts worth “hundreds of billions” and have threatened to withhold support for the budget if their demands are not addressed.
• ECB's Pereira: ECB policymaker Pereira warned that renewed pressure on natural gas prices could lift inflation during the winter.
• EC survey: The European Commission’s September business survey is due for release, with particular attention expected on companies’ selling-price expectations.
• Commerzbank takeover: Italian banking group UniCredit is reportedly accelerating its plans to take control of German lender Commerzbank, according to the Financial Times. CEO Andrea Orcel reportedly intends to replace all ten shareholder representatives on Commerzbank’s supervisory board and seek the removal of CEO Bettina Orlopp.

Closing statement: The DAX 40 remains around 25,470 as investors monitor European fiscal negotiations and renewed concerns over energy-driven inflation. The European Commission survey and developments surrounding UniCredit’s plans for Commerzbank could provide additional catalysts, while higher natural-gas prices remain a potential source of pressure for the broader European market.